- GDP grew 0.8% quarter on quarter between October and December and 2.8% over the whole of 2025.
- Almost all the push came from domestic demand; external demand took a point off annual growth.
- It is a flash estimate: the INE will revise it, and it should be read with the caution due to any first estimate.
On 30 January 2026 the INE published its flash estimate of the Quarterly National Accounts: the Spanish economy grew 0.8% between October and December 2025 compared with the previous quarter, two tenths more than in the third. Year on year, growth was 2.6%, a tenth less than in the previous quarter, and 2025 as a whole closed with growth of 2.8% over 2024.
The make-up of growth matters as much as the figure. Domestic demand contributed 3.6 points to annual growth in the fourth quarter, while external demand subtracted one point. In the labour market, hours worked rose 2.2% year on year and full-time-equivalent jobs 2.8%, both below the third-quarter readings of 2.6% and 3.3%.
How a flash estimate is measured
Gross domestic product (GDP) adds up the value of the goods and services an economy produces in a period. The INE publishes a first estimate every quarter, the flash, about four weeks after the period ends and with information still incomplete, and corrects it as more data arrive; the main revision comes about ninety days after the quarter closes.
That is why it is worth distinguishing between the quarterly change, which compares one quarter with the previous one and reflects the recent pace, and the annual change, which compares with the same quarter a year earlier and smooths out swings. The 0.8% quarterly and 2.6% annual figures tell complementary stories: the economy kept up a good pace at the end of the year, albeit somewhat more moderate than in earlier months. For a company, the most useful reading is usually the trend over several quarters, not an isolated figure.
Consumption and investment versus exports
For domestic demand to contribute 3.6 points and external demand to subtract one means that consumption, investment and public spending are growing faster than net exports, that is, sales abroad minus imports. That is not necessarily a problem: an economy that grows and demands more imported goods can show it this way. But it does indicate that the engine is mainly domestic. For example, household consumption can grow strongly while exports weaken, and the aggregate result would hide that difference.
For companies, this means a domestic market with traction and, for now, lower exposure to the uncertainties of international trade. It is also worth noting that hours worked are growing somewhat less than GDP, which points to a slight improvement in productivity, although flash data do not allow firm conclusions about it.
What to review
When preparing budgets and forecasts for 2026, an aggregate growth figure is a starting point, not a promise. It is worth comparing it with the performance of your own customers, financing costs, energy prices and collection periods, which are the factors that end up determining each company’s result.
Families can look at closer indicators: employment, the trend in wages and in inflation. If you work with customers or suppliers abroad, it is also worth following the performance of your specific markets, because the national figure averages very different realities across sectors and regions. And we should all wait for the INE’s first revision before treating the figures as final. This note is general information and does not replace the advice of your financial adviser.
A good year of growth does not guarantee the next, but it helps to plan more calmly.
This article is general information. It is not legal, tax or investment advice, and it does not take anyone’s particular circumstances into account.
