The Houthis seize control of Bab al-Mandab

Between 11 and 13 September 2026 Houthi forces took the port of Mocha and the island of Perim, and with them control of the whole Yemeni Red Sea coast and of the Bab al-Mandab strait, through which around 12% of world trade passes. It is a figure that shows the importance of that passage for trade between two great regions.

For international trade, the news arrived at a bad time: with tension over Hormuz still present, it added a second vulnerable point on the routes linking Asia with Europe. Beyond the military and political aspects, which lie outside these lines, the practical question for companies is what happens to the cost and timing of transporting goods that depend on that route. A rise in maritime transport costs is passed on, sooner or later, to the prices of almost everything that is bought.

A second critical point

That 12% makes the Bab al-Mandab strait one of the key routes between Asia and Europe. That its control fell into the hands of an armed force added a second focus of risk to the one already existing at Hormuz. Two strategic passages under threat at the same time greatly reduce trade’s room for manoeuvre. It is a situation that forces consideration of alternative routes that may be slower, dearer or both.

Economists call points through which a disproportionate share of traffic passes bottlenecks. They are efficient while they work, because they concentrate flow on short routes, but vulnerable when they fail, because there are no equivalent alternatives. The more bottlenecks affected at once, the harder it is to compensate for the loss. That is why risks at these points do not simply add up but reinforce one another.

Dearer routes

With Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab threatened at the same time, routes between Asia and Europe were becoming dearer again. When the shortest passage ceases to be safe, ships go round, take longer and insurance and freight rates rise, something that sooner or later shows up in the prices of what is imported. Final consumers will not see a surcharge by that name, but they will see a gradual increase in certain products.

A longer journey burns more fuel, ties up vessels for more days and reduces the capacity available for other cargoes, which pushes everyone’s rates upwards. To this is added the insurance surcharge for sailing near conflict zones. The final result is paid by whoever buys the product, although the increase arrives with a delay and spread across many items. That dilution explains why it is often hard to link the price of a product with a distant episode.

Reviewing suppliers and lead times

Reviewing deadlines and alternative suppliers was no longer optional for anyone who imports. It is worth talking to suppliers about their routes, weighing whether more safety stock is needed and checking what transport insurance covers, before a delay affects an important order or a customer. A simple review of pending orders and their route can reveal risks that had not been spotted.

It is also worth reflecting on which products are critical and which can wait, and distinguishing between urgent orders, which may justify another means of transport, and those that can bear a delay. Early communication with customers about possible delays is appreciated more than a late explanation. Anticipation is the cheapest form of resilience.

When several routes fail at once, diversification ceases to be a luxury.

This article is general information. It is not legal, tax or investment advice, and it does not take anyone’s particular circumstances into account.