- On 17 February Macron brought Europe’s main leaders together in Paris to discuss Ukraine and the continent’s security.
- The meeting followed the rapprochement between Washington and Moscow, which raised fears that Europe would be left out of the negotiation.
- For businesses, the underlying issue is security, energy and sanctions: prepare scenarios rather than wait for certainties.
On Monday 17 February 2025, French president Emmanuel Macron gathered a group of European leaders at the Élysée Palace in a meeting called at short notice. Those attending included the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Council, António Costa, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, German chancellor Olaf Scholz, British prime minister Keir Starmer, and the heads of government of Poland, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark and Spain.
The reason was Washington’s change of course. Days earlier, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin had spoken by telephone, and in Europe and Kyiv there was growing fear that a negotiation on ending the war would be decided without them. The meeting was an attempt to coordinate positions and to show that Europe wants a voice in any agreement affecting the continent’s security.
A meeting to avoid being sidelined
The war in Ukraine is about to enter its fourth year and has shaped the European economy ever since: energy prices, supply chains, defence budgets and the sanctions regime against Russia. That Europe bore much of the consequences yet might not be at the table where a solution could be discussed was hard to accept for the most involved capitals.
The Paris meeting was neither a formal summit nor a decision-making body, but an emergency consultation between governments. Its value lies in the signal: Europe wants to define its own position before others define it on its behalf. The details of any agreement, if one comes, will depend on negotiations that have not yet begun. It is also a message aimed inwards: the European Union has long been debating how to strengthen its strategic autonomy, and episodes like this tend to speed those discussions up.
What may change for businesses
Three fronts may move depending on how diplomacy evolves. The first is sanctions: the European Union’s regime against Russia is renewed for six-month periods and requires unanimity among Member States, so any change of stance has direct effects on companies that export, finance or buy in the affected sectors. Each new renewal has shown that the balance among countries is not simple, and an eventual peace agreement would also open a debate on which sanctions stay and which are lifted.
The second is energy. Since 1 January 2025 Russian gas no longer transits Ukraine towards the European Union, and gas and electricity prices remain sensitive to geopolitical news. The third is defence: the debate over who pays for European security may translate into more public spending, contracts and changes in budget priorities.
What to review
Rather than predicting the outcome, it is better to review exposure. A company can go through which suppliers and customers depend on markets affected by sanctions, what price-revision and force majeure clauses its contracts contain, and how energy supply risk is covered. It should also check that its compliance function is up to date with export-control rules, and what would happen if a key customer or supplier were hit by new restrictions overnight, and who would take the decisions in that case.
Families with internationally diversified assets can check their concentration by country and currency, without taking impulsive decisions in response to headlines. The aim is to understand the risk, not to anticipate the outcome of open negotiations. This information is general and is not individual advice: consult your adviser.
In times of geopolitical uncertainty, what helps is having scenarios ready before they materialise.
This article is general information. It is not legal, tax or investment advice, and it does not take anyone’s particular circumstances into account.
