Trump returns to the White House

On 20 January 2025, Donald Trump was sworn in for his second term as President of the United States and signed dozens of executive orders the same day. It was the start of a period that many business owners, investors and governments awaited with attention, because Washington’s policy shapes trade, energy, technology and financial markets across half the world.

The next day Stargate was announced, a private project of up to 500 billion dollars in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The combination of immediate political decisions and an investment announcement of that size gave the measure of the pace at which the term was starting and of the importance given to technology as an economic engine. It is worth separating what is already a signed decision from what is a statement of intent: the first has immediate legal effects; the second depends on being carried out, and does not always happen on the terms announced.

A fast start

Executive orders allow a US president to act quickly without going through Congress, and their scope can be very wide. They do not have the force of a law passed by both chambers and can be reviewed by the courts or by a later president, but while they are in force they have real effects on agencies, contracts and regulations.

That is why the start of a term usually sets the tone of economic policy for the following years. The first decisions indicate priorities, anticipate conflicts and oblige those who do business with the United States to reconsider assumptions that seemed stable. Reading them with caution, without taking everything announced for granted, is part of following current affairs well.

Trade, energy and regulation

A period of rapid change was beginning in trade, energy and regulation. These are three areas that directly affect costs, prices and the conditions in which companies can sell, produce or invest. A change in any of them travels through supply chains and contracts, often with effects on countries that did not take the decision.

For an open economy such as Spain’s, and a city as well connected as Barcelona, what happens in Washington arrives by many routes: demand from US customers, the price of energy, the euro–dollar exchange rate or the reaction of other governments. Not every route weighs the same in every business, and that is where each company’s own work lies.

Managing US exposure

For companies with exposure to the United States, following decisions week by week became essential: customers, suppliers, dollar-denominated contracts or investments in that market. The point is not to guess the next announcement, but to know which part of the business would be sensitive to a change and to have a reasonable response in mind. That exercise is useful both for a large exporter and for a small company that buys components from a supplier which, in turn, depends on the US market.

A good exercise is to draw a simple map of dependencies: what share of sales, purchases or financing passes through that market, which clauses allow prices and deadlines to be revised, and who in the organisation is responsible for following the situation. If exposure is large, talking to an adviser about currency hedging and commercial alternatives can avoid surprises.

In a fast-changing environment, up-to-date information is part of management.

This article is general information. It is not legal, tax or investment advice, and it does not take anyone’s particular circumstances into account.