- On 5 November Donald Trump won the US presidential election; US stocks, the dollar and bitcoin rose sharply.
- On 7 November the Federal Reserve cut rates again. Tariffs, less regulation and a crypto-friendly turn were expected.
- For European exporters, the trade threat became the main risk for 2025: it is worth calculating dependence on the US market.
On 5 November 2024, Donald Trump won the US presidential election. US stocks, the dollar and bitcoin rose sharply in the following days, and on 7 November the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again. Elections in the United States are never solely an American matter: their results influence markets, trade and currencies around the world. That is why the market reaction is measured in hours, not weeks.
This note does not judge the election or the candidates. Its purpose is to understand how markets reacted, what expectations were being priced in and what practical consequences the new stage could have for European and Spanish companies, in particular those that sell or buy in the United States or depend on international supply chains.
The market reaction
That reaction has its own logic. Markets quickly incorporate available information, and an election result clarifies a scenario that was until then uncertain: even if it is not the one everyone hoped for, it reduces uncertainty about who will govern. That reduction in uncertainty partly explains the positive market reaction.
The simultaneous rise in stocks, the dollar and bitcoin is no coincidence. It responds to the expectation that certain policies, such as lower taxes or lighter regulation, will favour activity and appetite for risk. But that expectation is based on what the new government has said it wants to do, not on what it will finally do. Real policies depend on processing, internal balances and the reaction of other countries.
What was expected
Tariffs, less regulation and a crypto-friendly turn were expected. Markets reflect expectations, and these can change when campaign promises become concrete measures, or do not. Experience shows that the distance between what is announced and what is approved can be considerable, and that timetables, legal limits and negotiations alter the final outcome.
A tariff is a tax on imports that makes the foreign product dearer; lighter regulation can reduce costs for some companies and increase risks for others; a crypto-friendly turn can change the framework in which investors and firms in the sector operate. Each of these issues affects different companies, and it is worth knowing which are relevant to one’s own. The key is not to treat all news alike but to distinguish what affects the business from what does not.
The risk for exporters
For European exporters, the trade threat became the main risk for 2025. It is worth calculating how much of turnover depends on the US market, what margin would withstand a tariff and what alternative markets exist. It is an exercise in scenarios that does not require guessing what will happen, but knowing how the business would look in each case. A high dependence on a single market turns any change of rules into a matter of survival.
Useful questions include who would bear a possible tariff, the exporter or the buyer; whether contracts allow prices to be renegotiated; whether there is capacity to redirect sales to other markets; and what would happen to timetables and cash flow. An adviser can help build those scenarios and decide in advance what measures to take in each case. The sooner those numbers are done, the more room there will be to react in an orderly way.
Preparing for several scenarios is more prudent than betting on one.
This article is general information. It is not legal, tax or investment advice, and it does not take anyone’s particular circumstances into account.
