- In the 22 October first round, Sergio Massa won around 36.7% and Javier Milei close to 30%; both will contest the runoff on 19 November.
- Patricia Bullrich came third, with about 23.8%, and turnout was around 74% of the electorate.
- Argentina is dealing with triple-digit inflation and tight currency controls, which affects businesses and families with ties to the country.
On Sunday 22 October 2023 Argentina held the first round of its presidential election. With 98% of polling stations counted, Economy Minister and ruling-coalition candidate Sergio Massa (Union for the Homeland) took around 36.7% of the vote; the libertarian economist Javier Milei (La Libertad Avanza) about 30%, and Together for Change candidate Patricia Bullrich 23.8%. As neither reached the threshold required to win outright, Massa and Milei will contest the runoff on 19 November.
The result surprised many pollsters, who had Milei in first place. It matters beyond Argentina because of the economic scale of what is being decided: the country is living with triple-digit annual inflation, a currency with several exchange rates, tight restrictions on capital movements and an external debt that conditions its relationship with the International Monetary Fund. The two candidates’ proposals for that situation are very different.
Two different proposals
Massa broadly represents continuity with the current government, with a programme of gradual stabilisation, a continued active role for the state and negotiation with the International Monetary Fund. Milei proposes a break: drastically cutting public spending, liberalising the economy and, in his best-known version, dollarising the economy and closing the central bank. Both proposals raise questions about their political viability and short-term effects.
It is not for this note to anticipate the result or take sides. What matters for a reader with interests in the country is that the runoff brings a few weeks of uncertainty over the exchange rate, the rules on repatriating profits and economic policy for the coming years, and that either scenario will take time to turn into concrete measures.
Effects for businesses and families
Spanish companies with subsidiaries, partners or customers in Argentina face an environment of exchange controls: difficulty accessing foreign currency, paying for imports or repatriating dividends, and a gap between the official exchange rate and parallel ones. This affects asset valuation, peso-denominated contracts and cash planning. A change of government may alter those rules, although the form and pace of any change are uncertain.
Whatever the outcome, the Argentine economy carries imbalances that will hardly be corrected quickly, whoever wins: a fiscal deficit, low reserves and inflation that erodes income and savings. For businesses, this calls for prudence on collection periods and in local-currency contracts. It is also worth remembering that elections do not change the legal framework overnight: current rules will keep applying until they are amended, and any major reform will need time and parliamentary support.
What to review
Companies with exposure to Argentina should review their adjustment clauses, payment currency and hedging mechanisms, as well as collection periods and the possibility of repatriating funds. It is advisable to assess different scenarios after the runoff, without presuming who the winner will be.
Families with ties to the country can review which assets and accounts they hold there and whether they meet tax reporting obligations in Spain, such as declarations of assets abroad. Decisions on currency, property or inheritances should be taken calmly and with advice; this note is general information and not an investment recommendation.
A runoff is a parenthesis of uncertainty; prudence means preparing for several outcomes.
This article is general information. It is not legal, tax or investment advice, and it does not take anyone’s particular circumstances into account.
