- Average affiliation exceeds 19.5 million, a historic high that summer helps to explain.
- Registered unemployment posted a very sharp fall in a single month, though with a strong seasonal component.
- Furlough schemes (ERTE) and temporary work qualify the reading: part of the employment is still fragile.
The July 2021 figures, published on 3 August, showed an average of 19,591,728 people registered with Social Security, 91,451 more than in June and 806,174 more than a year earlier (a 4.29 % year-on-year increase). Registered unemployment at the public employment offices fell by 197,841 people from the previous month, or 5.47 %, to 3,416,498 jobseekers.
These figures exceed the pre-pandemic level, and they need to be read with care. The Labour Force Survey (EPA) for the second quarter, released a week earlier, had put the unemployment rate at 15.26 % and the temporary-employment rate at 25.1 %. Both sources point the same way, towards recovery, but they measure different things.
How to read the figures
Average affiliation is the mean number of people registered with Social Security during the month, and it includes workers on furlough schemes (ERTE), who remain affiliated even if they are not working full time. Registered unemployment, by contrast, counts only those listed as jobseekers without work and does not include those on ERTE. That is why the same month can show more affiliates and fewer jobseekers without the two figures matching exactly: a person can stop appearing as a jobseeker without having found work, or be registered without having been listed before.
That difference matters at a time when ERTE schemes remained in force until 30 September. Part of July’s affiliates were still protected by those temporary mechanisms, so the real volume of activity is not fully reflected in these figures. The year-on-year comparison, which removes much of the seasonal effect, gives a more accurate idea of progress. Analysts recommend looking at several indicators at once. The registered unemployment statistic, for example, does not capture those who work fewer hours than they would like.
The weight of summer
July is a month of heavy seasonal hiring, above all in hospitality, tourism, retail and agriculture. The sectors that add the most jobs in summer are usually those that shed the most when the season ends. This year it was joined by the gradual reopening after the end of the state of alarm and the progress of vaccination, which partly explains the sharp rebound from summer 2020.
For companies in those sectors, the challenge is not only to hire but to find the right profiles and keep them. For the economy as a whole, the question is how much of the employment created in summer will last into autumn, when the season ends and temporary contracts expire. In that context, temporary work will remain one of the big issues on the labour agenda in the coming months.
What to review
Companies should look ahead at the calendar for the last quarter: which temporary contracts expire, which people remain on ERTE and when their cover ends, and how sales will evolve when summer is over. If the company has people on ERTE, now is the time to decide in advance how many it will bring back and on what terms. Planning with a margin avoids rushed decisions in September. It is also wise to anticipate staffing needs for the autumn and Christmas season.
It is also a good time to review labour costs, contributions and the situation of the self-employed who work with the company. Each case has its nuances, so it is advisable to discuss it with your labour adviser before deciding. A timely conversation avoids surprises in payroll and contributions during the last quarter of the year.
The recovery of employment is real, but it should be read with the autumn calendar in front of you.
This article is general information. It is not legal, tax or investment advice, and it does not take anyone’s particular circumstances into account.
