- On 13 June Israel launched attacks on Iranian nuclear and military sites.
- Oil rose sharply and gold approached highs amid fear of a regional war.
- In the face of a geopolitical shock, the first thing is to be clear about who does what: people’s safety, continuity and communication.
On 13 June 2025, Israel launched attacks on Iranian nuclear and military sites. This is a conflict with serious human consequences, followed with concern in the region and beyond, and in which the first priority is the safety of people. From an economic point of view, the attack suddenly raised the risk of a regional war and tested the calm of the markets. Any economic analysis should be made without losing sight of the fact that, behind the tension in the markets, there is a conflict that affects many people.
Oil rose sharply and gold approached record highs, two typical market reactions to fear of an escalation. These reactions do not predict what will happen, but they show how investors weigh risk and which assets are seen as havens when uncertainty grows. For companies and families, the useful question is how much of their activity depends, directly or indirectly, on the region’s energy and supply routes. Answering it with specific data is more useful than following the swings in prices.
A regional escalation
The Israeli offensive suddenly raised the risk of a regional conflict. In such situations, markets react first to fear and then to facts, and the uncertainty is reflected in the prices of several commodities.
Reacting to fear means prices can move more than events later justify. Often the first moves are the sharpest, and corrections come once it becomes clear what has really happened. That is why decisions taken in those first moments tend to be the least informed, and it is wise to allow some margin before acting. A margin of a few days, or even a few hours, makes it possible to separate what is noise from what is new information.
Oil and gold
Oil responds to supply: the Gulf concentrates a good part of the world’s energy and any threat to supply makes the barrel dearer; gold responds to fear: it is regarded as a safe-haven asset when instability grows.
More expensive oil is passed on, with a delay, to fuel, transport and many industrial prices, and reduces the margin of companies with high energy costs. Gold, for its part, generates no income, but is often sought as protection in times of tension. Neither movement implies that specific decisions must be taken, and this note does not recommend buying or selling any asset. What can be done is to review how much energy and commodities weigh in one’s own budget.
Continuity and safety
Because of that dependence on the region, companies with operations in the region reviewed their safety protocols and continuity plans: protection of staff, alternative supply routes and communication with customers. For everyone else, the effect arrives through energy and transport costs.
Even without a direct presence in the area, it is wise to ask what indirect dependencies exist: suppliers that use those routes, transport contracts with fuel surcharges or energy costs that could rise. Having a written plan, with clear responsibilities and tested communication channels, makes it possible to react calmly when a crisis arises anywhere in the world. It should also be reviewed and updated from time to time, because a plan that nobody has read in years stops being useful.
In the face of a geopolitical shock, the first useful step is to be clear about who does what.
This article is general information. It is not legal, tax or investment advice, and it does not take anyone’s particular circumstances into account.
