Spanish inflation holds at 4.9% as GDP grows 0.6%

On Friday 30 October 2026 Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE) published two figures on the same day. According to the flash estimate, the CPI rose 4.9% in October compared with a year earlier, the same rate as in September; core inflation, which excludes unprocessed food and energy, stayed at 3.1%. Hours earlier, the preliminary national accounts put GDP growth between July and September at 0.6%.

Inflation began the year at 2.3% and has risen since the spring, pushed up by energy after the war in Iran: 3.6% in July, 4.3% in August and 4.9% in September and October. It is above the eurozone average, which reached 3.8% in September, and it is the rate the European Central Bank had in front of it when it held rates last Thursday.

What the price data say

According to the INE, motor fuel prices fell more in October than a year earlier, and food and clothing rose less than they did then. Pushing in the other direction were gas, which is becoming more expensive than a year ago; heating oil and other liquid fuels, which are rising whereas a year ago they were falling; and package holidays. Over the month, prices rose 0.6%.

The most worrying figure is core inflation: it has gone from 2.6% in January to 3.1%, a sign that price rises are no longer confined to energy and are reaching other goods and services. The harmonised CPI, the measure used by the ECB, fell a tenth to 4.9%. These are provisional figures: the final data will be published on 13 November.

What the growth data say

The economy is keeping up a good pace, though a slightly slower one. Domestic demand contributed five tenths to growth in the quarter and the external sector one tenth. Household consumption grew 0.6%, public administration spending 0.9% and investment only 0.1%. Exports rose 1.3% and imports 1.1%. All major sectors grew except construction.

Year on year, GDP grew 2.7%, a tenth more than in the second quarter. At current prices, without adjusting for inflation, it grew 5.9%. But employment is cooling: hours worked rose 2.2% year on year, compared with 2.8% the previous quarter, and full-time equivalent employment 1.6%, compared with 2.3%.

What is worth reviewing

Spanish pensions are uprated each January in line with average year-on-year inflation from December to November. With the data known up to October, that average is around 3.5%; the figure will be settled with the November CPI, and with Parliament dissolved and the budget rolled over, the increase will have to be approved by decree-law. Lease, supply or service contracts that are updated in line with the CPI will see a considerably larger review this year than in 2025, when October CPI was 3.1%.

With prices rising by close to 5% a year, a balance that earns nothing loses almost 5% of its purchasing power in a year. It helps to know how much of one’s wealth is held in cash and what real return it earns, and, in a company, which collective agreements or contracts carry wage or price review clauses linked to the CPI when preparing the 2027 budget. This information is of a general nature; consult your adviser on how it applies to your case.

Growth is holding up; prices are not yet easing.