Milei wins the midterms and Argentine markets soar

On 26 October 2025 Argentina renewed half of its Chamber of Deputies and a third of its Senate. La Libertad Avanza, President Javier Milei’s party, won 40.8% of the vote nationwide, well ahead of the Peronists, and carried most provinces, including, narrowly, Buenos Aires, where it had clearly lost a provincial election in September. Turnout was low, at around 68%.

What we know

The result does not give Milei a majority in either chamber, but, with his allies, it lifts him above the third of the seats needed to uphold his vetoes and strengthens his hand in negotiating the labour and tax reforms he wants to pass. He came to the vote at a delicate moment: the September defeat in Buenos Aires had put heavy pressure on the peso and triggered capital flight.

In the preceding weeks the US Treasury had announced a currency swap line of up to $20 billion with Argentina’s central bank and had bought pesos in the market, exceptional support that Donald Trump explicitly linked to the election result.

The market reaction

On Monday 27 October Argentine assets enjoyed one of the best days in their history. The peso gained close to 10% against the dollar, dollar-denominated sovereign bonds rose sharply and the Buenos Aires stock index climbed around 20%. The country risk premium, which measures the extra cost of Argentine debt, fell steeply.

Why it matters here

Argentina is a traditional destination for Spanish investment, with banks, energy firms, telecoms groups and insurers present in the country. The stability of the peso and the country’s access to markets are decisive for those companies’ accounts and for investors in Argentine bonds, a high-yield, high-risk asset.

Anyone with exposure to Argentina, directly or through emerging-market funds, should remember that these assets move very sharply in both directions. Ask your adviser before making decisions.

In emerging markets, one election night can be worth more than a year of data.